Thursday, February 5, 2009

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and the US homebuilders stocks

In this article, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard uses some weak reasoning:


But it is telling that the shares of builders D.R. Horton, Toll Brothers, and Lennar have begun to rally. The ITB builders share index has risen 45pc from its nadir in December.


I would argue that the ITB went up more than 45% at least two times in 2008:
- from 11Jan08 to 01Feb08,
- from 11Jul08 to 19Sep08.



What did it prove? Nothing.

Let's not try to learn information from what these stocks do. This is reasoning backwards.

The market is just moody, and the market can be wrong.



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