Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Toll Brothers (TOL) - stockholders´equity chart


Here is a chart of Toll Brothers stockholders´equity since 2001.
The data is based on Toll Brothers quarterly and annual reports which can be found here:
- quarterly reports
- yearly reports

From my understanding, the equity grew very fast during the housing bubble for two reasons:
- cash grew because of sales,
- inventory grew, and got inflated because of the constant appreciation of land and houses values.
All assets obviously growing faster than the liabilities.

Now Toll Brothers have:
- 1.6 billion $ of cash
- 4.1 billion $ of inventory

- total assets = 6.6 billion $
- total liabilities = 3.3 billion $
- hence equity = 3.3 billion §

Now my guess is that the inventory will have to be reevaluated in the future because Toll Brothers will never be able to sell it for the price they have it currently valued for.
I believe this is what happened in the last year.
If the inventory, currently reported worth 4.1 billion $, is sold in the next two years for say 2.5 billion $, then Toll Brothers total assets will diminish by 1.6 billion $, and same for the equity. And this would bring the equity back to 1.7 billion $.

Of course it will take time for Toll Brothers to realize/admit? the inventory writedowns.
In the meantime, the CEO Robert Toll is selling significant part of his shares in the company.
I would do the same if I were him.

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