Sunday, April 19, 2009

US Homebuilders seem largely overvalued to me

Some points I would like to make:
- US homebuilders had a huge rally, and are now valued as much as they were a year ago sometimes.
- few bloggers mention it,
- it seems financial newspapers are not even interested to mention this, being too busy reporting about "green shoots" and recoveries, and Obama´s confidence,
- and very few people remind investors that homebuilders face a very tough market. US foreclosures are higher that last year. Housing prices are lower than last year and prices are still dropping at high speed. Unemployment is up and going higher. US households have lost 20 to 25% of their net worth since a year ago.
And some insiders are selling like mad: see Toll Brothers CEO insiders´trades.
I think it is a scandal that this CEO can get away with this kind of behavior without being called for it by mainstream media. When will CNBC, Financial Times, WSJ do their work?
This CEO should be invited asap by CNBC, Fox news, and grilled on why he has been selling shares of his own company for the last 2 years.

I see no fundamental explaining the rally in homebuilders.
The only reason the rally could continue I believe, would be short squeeze, or continued irrational rally...

Disclaimer: some short positions on US homebuilders.

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